Your Idea About Science May Be Completely Wrong
Your idea about science may be completely wrong. If you think that science is about hard facts, irrefutable theories, and strong statements without room for doubt, this article will explain the scientific method and show you that you might have to readjust your ideas.
The Scientific Method
The scientific method is a cyclical process through which information is continually revised. Science is not a static entity, and theories that were accepted for a long time can be replaced with newer and better ideas. The scientific method is an empirical method of acquiring knowledge that has shaped the development of science since the 17th century. It involves careful observation, applying thorough skepticism about what is observed, given that cognitive assumptions can distort how one interprets the observation. Based on these observations, through induction, hypotheses are formulated. Then experiments are performed and measurement-based testing of deductions drawn from the hypotheses. Based on these experiments and measures, the hypotheses are refined or rejected, based on the experimental findings. These are principles of the scientific method, a definitive series of steps applicable to all scientific enterprises. (Scientific method, 2021)
But question everything. Keep what is good, and stay away from everything that is evil.
1 Thessalonians 5:21–22
How Can We Settle Opinions?
Charles Sanders Peirce (1839–1914) outlined four methods of settling opinion, from least to most successful:
1. The method of tenacity. It brings comfort and decisiveness, but by ignoring contrary information, it successes can shine but tend to be transitory.
2. The method of authority. This can overcome disagreement but sometimes brutally. It can be more long-lived, but it cannot suppress doubts indefinitely, especially when people get better informed.
3. The method of a priori. `What is agreeable to reason.’ It depends on fashion in paradigms and goes in circles over time. It is more intellectual and respectable but sustains accidental and capricious beliefs like the first two methods.
4. The scientific method. This method wherein inquiry regards itself as fallible and purposely tests itself and criticizes, corrects, and improves itself.
Peirce held that slow, stumbling argumentation can be dangerously inferior to instinct and traditional sentiment in practical matters, and that the scientific method is best suited to theoretical research. The scientific method excels the others by being deliberately designed to arrive, eventually, at the most secure beliefs, upon which the most successful practices can be based.
Upon this first, and in one sense this sole, rule of reason, that in order to learn you must desire to learn, and in so desiring not be satisfied with what you already incline to think, there follows one corollary which itself deserves to be inscribed upon every wall of the city of philosophy: Do not block the way of inquiry.
Charles S. Peirce
What Does The Scientific Method Look Like?
A common method that is used is the hypothetico-deductive method, and it uses the following steps:
1. We use our experience. We observe something, or we encounter a problem, and we start to think about it, we try to make sense of it. Then we begin to gather data, and we look for previous explanations.
2. We form a hypothesis; we state an explanation or solution.
3. We deduce predictions from the hypothesis. If the hypothesis is true, what consequences would follow?
4. We test, or we perform experiments. We look for evidence and make observations. We disprove the hypothesis (if observations conflict with our hypothesis), or approve the hypothesis (if observations match our hypothesis).
Keep It Simple
Scientists look for simple theories. This is not a matter of esthetic or taste, but usually simple or elegant theories prove to be reliable. Simple theories are also easier falsifiable. For example, if we take two hypotheses about the landing on the moon, first, the landing was real, and the second hypothesis, the landing was staged and never occurred. The first hypothesis is simple compared with the second, and it is easier to prove that the first hypothesis is correct. The problem with the second hypothesis is that it is too complicated, and it is not unfalsifiable (not capable of being proved false). By the way, this is a problem with most conspiracy theories. Ockham was a philosopher, and he came up with this rule, and it is called Ockham’s razor (Occam´s razor). So to put it simply, if there is more than one explanation, usually the most simple explanation is the right one.
Entities should not be multiplied without necessity.
(the simplest explanation is usually the right one)
William of Ockham
What Is a Hypothesis?
A scientific hypothesis must be falsifiable; this means that it must be possible to confirm outcomes of experiments or observations. A hypothesis has to be meaningfully tested, and results must be reproducible. A hypothesis is an idea or explanation for something. We use the terms null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis. A null hypothesis is the conjecture that the statistical hypothesis is false; for example, that the new drug does nothing and that any cure is caused by chance. Usually we want to show that the null hypothesis is false. The alternative hypothesis is the desired outcome, that the drug does better than chance.
… every hypothesis is a construction, and because of this it is an authentic theory. In so far as they merit that exigent name, ideas are never a mere reception of presumed realities, but they are constructions of possibilities; therefore they are pure bits of imagination, or fine ideas of our own…
José Ortega
A scientific hypothesis must be falsifiable, meaning that one can identify a possible outcome of an experiment that conflicts with predictions deduced from the hypothesis; otherwise, it cannot be meaningfully tested. Therefore, the hypothesis that unicorns exist is a bad hypothesis because we cannot prove this could be false (although we can assume changes are pretty slim…).
The success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply in its perceived `truth´, or power to displace, subsume or reduce a predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the research that will illuminate … bald suppositions and areas of vagueness.
William Glenn
To reduce the chance for confirmation bias, scientists can propose multiple hypotheses. The process of discussing hypotheses and arguing about theories further diminishes the chance for confirmation bias. Discussing ideas is an essential part of the scientific method, and science can only flourish through open and broad discussions.
A good hypothesis will be able to make predictions through reasoning. If the hypothesis is correct, you can predict the outcome of an experiment or know what observations to expect.
To test a hypothesis, the predictions that follow from the hypothesis must be observable or measurable. If this is not possible, the hypothesis is unscientific. This can be very obvious, like in the case of the hypothesis that unicorns exist, or it can be that there is a scientific basis, but we are unable (yet) to test the hypothesis. For example, a hypothesis about the existence of another intelligent species in the universe; science cannot say a lot about this now, but in the future, and with new techniques, maybe it will be possible to test this hypothesis.
What Is an Experiment?
Experiments are used to determine if observations agree with, or conflict with the predictions derived from a hypothesis. The more often the observations agree, the higher the confidence in the hypothesis. If observations do not agree with the expected outcome, the confidence in the hypothesis will decrease, or the hypothesis may even be discarded. Agreement does not assure that the hypothesis is true; future experiments may reveal problems. A hypothesis is only valid till it is replaced with another hypothesis. Improvements in theoretical scientific understanding typically result from a gradual process of development over time, sometimes across different domains of science
The TV scientist who mutters sadly, “The experiment is a failure; we have failed to achieve what we had hoped for,” is suffering mainly from a bad script writer. An experiment is never a failure solely because it fails to achieve predicted results. An experiment is a failure only when it also fails adequately to test the hypothesis in question, when the data it produces don’t prove anything one way or another.
Robert M. Pirsig
Science is an open process; therefore, if an experiment is performed, in the description of the experiment the scientists have to be accurate in their description about how they performed the experiment. It must be so open that other scientists could be capable of copying the results. This enhances accountability and integrity of the scientific process. If an experiment can be repeated by other scientists, it will strengthen the validity of the hypothesis.
What Is Falsification?
We must be able to test a hypothesis, if we cannot test it, it is not a good hypothesis. In a way, scientist are searching for confirmation, but also for incompatible results. The more the hypothesis can be tested, the stronger it becomes. The consequence of this is also that no theory can ever be considered final since there is always a possibility that new problematic evidence might be discovered.
Any physical theory is always provisional, in the sense that it is only a hypothesis: you can never prove it. No matter how many times the results of experiments agree with some theory, you can never be sure that the next time the result will not contradict the theory.
Stephen Hawking
If new evidence is found, a new theory may be developed, or the current theory is modified so that it is sufficient to explain the new evidence. Science is not static, science is a dynamic process.
Repeating experiments and reproducing the results have the effect that we diminish the chance for distorting influences. These can be circumstance, chance, and also personal bias. Even scientists can suffer from confirmation bias, which can interfere with their observations. We tend to observe what we expect to observe; therefore it is good practice to repeat experiments by other scientists.
What Is Uncertainty?
When you measure something, there is always an uncertainty; by repeating measurements, this uncertainty becomes less. We can have uncertainty because of data collection limitations (like epidemiologic studies about diet, how accurately do you remember what you ate a month ago?) Other uncertainties can be about representation (if you study prostate cancer, females would not be an accurate presentation for your study), or sampling methods.
What Is Peer Review
Another way to improve accountability and to make the chance for biases more minor is peer review. If a scientist submits a manuscript to a scientific journal, the manuscript will be read and checked by an editor and fellow scientists familiar with the studied field. This way, the chance for errors is diminished, and quality improved. Peer review also has its limitations, if research is performed outside conventional paradigms, in peer review, groupthink can interfere and hinder open and fair discussion about new ideas.
Science Is Not a Democratic Process
One of the common quotes about climate change is that 97% of scientists agree about this. Besides the fact that this quote is not true, and not based on very solid research, the other thing is that it misses the point of science. Now that we have a clearer idea about the scientific method, we can now see that science is not a democratic process and is not performed by holding polls or questionnaires. If it would be like this, then in the time of Galilei, the poll would have ended in 99.99% of scientist (including the Catholic Church) is for the theory that the sun circles around earth, and 0.01% of scientist, Galilei, vote for the theory that the earth circles around the sun.
If fifty million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.
Anatole France
Is All Science The Same?
There is hard and soft science. Stating 1+1=2, is of a different level than saying humans cause global climate change. Mathematics is very hard science, climate is very soft science. What does this mean? Studies in hard sciences involve experiments that are relatively easy to set up with controlled variables and in which it is easier to make objective measurements. Soft sciences deal with intangibles and relate to the study of human and animal behaviors, interactions, thoughts, and feelings. Soft sciences apply the scientific method, but it is almost impossible to recreate a soft science experiment with exactitude because of the nature of living beings. Particularly in sciences dealing with people, it may be difficult to isolate all the variables that can influence an outcome. This has the consequence that hypotheses or theories are less `hard´ compared to hard science. There is, simply put, more room for error in soft sciences.
The Role Of Errors
Errors play an interesting role in science. By testing a hypothesis by experiments, scientists can find bugs and errors in their results. The scientists wants to fix this and may think there is an error in their method. If the error persists and is systematic, the scientists can discover that this is not a coincidence. This will lead to a new circle of scientific thinking and can lead to an improved and more accurate hypothesis.
Science has never been defined by infallibility or superhuman perfection. It has always been about healthy skepticism, about putting every hypothesis to the test.
Ben Orlin
Science is not defined by infallibility; science progresses through doubt and discussion about theories and ideas. A real scientist will always be open to discussing and challenging his or her ideas.
Interesting Links:
How You Keep Fooling Yourself: Cognitive Dissonance
Primary And Secondary Emotions Necessary For Better Decision Making
You Cannot Know What You Do Not Know: Dunning-Kruger Effect
References
Scientific method. (2021, April 17). Retrieved from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
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